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NW SEM ETSP - Autocorrelation

After reviewing SEM measurement and verification (M&V) protocols from different programs, the NW SEM Collaborative's Energy Tracking and Savings Protocols (ETSP) team identified autocorrelation as a common statistical issue in industrial data sets in October 2013. Understanding that autocorrelation has the potential to negatively affect the predictive capability of regression-based energy models used to create adjusted energy baselines, more consistent treatment of this issue may help improve confidence in SEM-based savings, and thereby address a potential market barrier. The ETSP team compiled this paper for the purposes of outlining the implications of autocorrelation in the context of SEM measurement and verification, and providing examples of how program implementers have successfully identified and treated the presence of autocorrelation in regression-based energy models.

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